Looming Risk of Nuclear War
The risk of nuclear war is hanging over the world as geopolitical tensions escalate. Nuclear threats are at their highest level in decades with potential flashpoints. The nuclear-armed states have increased their reliance on nuclear weapons and its relevance has ever increased. This concerning trend, particularly, in volatile regions where territorial disputes and military posturing have heightened the risk of nuclear escalation. The strained relationships between the United States and Russia amidst the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war, escalating tensions between Israel and Iran, and North Korea`s persistent nuclear threat create a precarious global landscape.
The escalating tensions in the Middle East significantly affect the region`s security landscape. Iran and Israel are inching ever closer to a full-scale war and the region nearly took a nuclear turn after it launched a barrage ballistic missile attack on Israel on October 1. This may come to be seen as a decisive turning point as Israel is considering attacking Iran`s nuclear facilities while Iran could gear up its nuclear building activities.
Iran has already warned it could change its nuclear doctrine if its nuclear facilities are targeted, especially after the failure of the nuclear deal between Iran and the US-led world powers.
Such a development would fundamentally change the security landscape of the Middle East.
Israel initially hinted at attacking Iran’s nuclear facilities in response to Tehran`s ballistic missile attack, a target the country has long-eyed. However, it now appears to have cancelled such a plan amid rumours of Iran conducting its first-ever nuclear bomb test. It may be due to its strategic calculations of hardening Iranian resolve to acquire nuclear weapons while also not destroying permanently its capability to achieve that goal.
Escalating Nuclear Tensions: Iran, North Korea, and the Growing Threat of Nuclear War
This is something—that can be called Iran`s threshold nuclear challenge for Israel and the US. The current situation in the Middle East represents a critical juncture in the region’s geopolitics, with the potential to escalate into a nuclear crisis, or even a nuclear war.
Nuclear tensions also keep rising in the Korean Peninsula. In his latest statement, North Korea`s leader Kim Jong Un threatened to use nuclear weapons “without hesitation” if his country is attacked by South Korea and the United States.
North Korea has designated South Korea as its main adversary and vows to annihilate it for taking sides with the US to threaten its national survival and regime survival. The Kim regime has issued similar threats to use nuclear weapons multiple times. This latest warning came amid the signing of joint nuclear deterrence guidelines between the United States and South Korea in July this year in a bid to ensure an efficient response to DPRK`s evolving nuclear threats. Also, there have been calls for nuclear weapons in South Korea to protect against its neighbour—North Korea.
Russia’s Nuclear Strategy Shift Amid the Ukraine War: A Growing Threat of Nuclear War
The ongoing Russia-Ukraine war has significantly impacted Russia`s nuclear doctrine. The conventionally stronger and technologically advanced country—Russia is increasing its dependence on nuclear war. The Ukraine war has already entered a dangerous phase with Russia changing its nuclear doctrine. Under the updated doctrine, Russia would consider a nuclear strike in response to any nation’s conventional attack on Russia that is supported by a nuclear power would be perceived as a joint attack, and bringing Belarus under its nuclear umbrella. The new doctrine is a warning to the West over its support of Ukraine against Russia and Moscow`s strategy to rely more on nuclear weapons to prevent Western support for Ukraine.
The world stands on the brink of nuclear conflict due to rising tensions between nuclear-armed countries. Although nuclear deterrence has played a central role in preventing direct conflict between nuclear-armed countries, as the catastrophic consequences of a nuclear exchange serve as a powerful disincentive to launch an attack.
However, nuclear proliferation for geopolitical goals and attempts to create strategic imbalances are intensifying threat perceptions and the arms race, in turn. The lack of cooperation between the major powers amidst the increasing geopolitical contestations and their support and exemptions to a few states have added to the complexity of the situation.
Emerging technologies are also impacting the security domain. The utilization of new and emerging technologies for military superiority and dominance on the battlefield is fuelling new global and regional arms races. It also increases the risks of misunderstanding and miscalculations, thus increasing the risks of nuclear war.
