Trump, who had adopted aggressive and strict policies towards Iran during his previous presidency, this time also promised to make essential changes in the policy.
With his party controlling the House of Representatives and the Senate and not fearing re-election, his hands are open to implementing many policies and international plans this time.
With his victory in the 2024 elections, the prospect of relations between the United States and Iran will enter a new phase.
Here are five possible policies of Trump toward the Islamic Republic of Iran:
- Return to the “maximum pressure” strategy
One of the first consequences of Trump’s return to the White House will be the possibility of reviving the “maximum pressure” strategy against Iran. This policy, which was implemented during his first term, included extensive sanctions against various sectors of the Iranian economy, especially the oil and gas industries. In his first term, Trump withdrew from the JCPOA and imposed sanctions on Iran, whose aim was to paralyze Iran’s economy and bring the country to the negotiating table.
Returning to this approach means increasing sanctions and economic restrictions, including those related to the sale of oil to China and financial exchanges with the UAE, to pressure the Iranian government to agree on nuclear and regional issues.
- Achieving a “better agreement” with Iran
Achieving a “better deal” was one of Trump’s main promises in the 2024 election campaigns. Trump has always believed that the JCPOA is insufficient and incomplete and could not prevent the progress of Iran’s nuclear program. He has announced that he will seek an agreement that not only limits Iran’s nuclear program but also deals with missile issues and Iran’s regional policies.
A few weeks ago, in an interview with a famous American podcast, he said: “I want to see Iran be very successful, but the only thing they cannot do is have nuclear weapons!”
- Trying to isolate Iran in the region
Trump seeks to change the geopolitical equations of the Middle East. During the first term of his presidency, he established close relations with the Arab countries of the Persian Gulf, especially Saudi Arabia. He signed the “Ibrahim Agreement” to normalize relations between the Arab countries and Israel.
His return to the White House could mean re-strengthening these alliances and trying to isolate Iran in the region, especially with the Republicans’ new security plan for the future of Gaza and the efforts of Jared Kushner, Trump’s son-in-law, to bring Saudi Arabia and the UAE into the issue of Palestinian-Israeli tension.
Also, the second Trump administration will put the advancement of the Indo-Middle East-Europe economic corridor or IMAC corridor on the agenda, which will be detrimental to Iran.
- Intensification of the trade war with China and its consequences for Iran
The intensification of the trade war between the United States and China is also among the plans of the second Trump administration, which will significantly impact Iran. In his first term, Trump showed that he has a strict approach toward China, and it is likely that this approach will continue in the second term as well.
Since Iran and China have close relations and China is the leading buyer of Iranian oil, the escalation of tensions between Washington and Beijing can indirectly affect Iran and even lead to increased pressure on Iran’s oil exports. Also, in his election promises, Trump mentioned that if it continues to buy oil from Iran, China will face more severe consequences in his second administration.
- Increasing military tensions
Due to Trump’s very close relationship with Netanyahu and his cabinet’s strong attachment to Israel, there is a possibility of increasing military tensions in the region. Before this, the Biden administration had defined red lines for Israeli politicians in attacking Iran, such as nuclear and oil facilities, but with the return of Trump, these red lines will no longer exist for Israel.
Although Trump, according to various American media reports, asked Netanyahu for a ceasefire in the region before he entered the White House, if Iran and Israel continue to attack each other, he will open Netanyahu’s hand for any military action in the region. A matter that Leon Panetta, the former head of the CIA, pointed out and said: “About the Middle East, I think he will practically sign a blank check to Netanyahu.”
