Regional security

The Middle East is once again being pushed towards a wider conflict, with little indication that the powers driving the confrontation have any credible plan for peace, with military escalation, rather than diplomacy, continuing to dominate thinking in Washington and Tel Aviv. US President Donald Trump’s latest comments on the Strait of Hormuz are particularly alarming. On Friday, he said the US would soon declare the strategic waterway US territory “after we finish defeating Iran”. Strangely, he also threatened Oman with military action if Muscat interfered in US efforts involving Iran and the strait. The Strait of Hormuz is a vital international waterway through which a significant portion of the world’s oil supplies passes, and further confrontation there could push oil and gasoline prices even higher.

Iran and Oman, meanwhile, have been working on arrangements for shipping through the strait, with Tehran saying talks over a proposed transit route have reached an understanding. Such regional diplomacy should be encouraged, not threatened. Trump’s apparent obsession with Iran is increasingly difficult to ignore. The US has failed to achieve its objectives through military pressure, whether regime change or forcing Tehran to its knees. Instead, the US-Israel war appears to have produced a more united Iran, while the resilience of Iranians has exposed the limits of military might. And it doesn’t just stop here. Now Trump has decided to substantially reduce joint military exercises with South Korea because Seoul refused to participate in efforts to ‘denuclearise’ Iran. If this isn’t bizarre decision-making, what is? There are also serious questions about the US handling of the Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding, which has now led to a back-and-forth over what the 60-day period in the MoU means. None of this is a good omen for lasting peace. In fact, this approach risks producing a prolonged conflict that no country in the region wants. Growing frustration among key US allies in the Gulf is already evident. Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, Kuwait and Bahrain have all expressed concern over the continuation of the war and its impact on regional stability.

The fundamental problem remains Israel and its expansionist ambitions. Israel’s rejection of peace initiatives continues to undermine diplomatic efforts. The foreign ministers of eight Muslim countries, including Pakistan, have recently rightly condemned Israel’s rejection of the 15-point Gaza roadmap put forward by the Board of Peace, saying its position jeopardised efforts for a just and lasting peace. Regional countries therefore have every reason to reconsider their security arrangements. Trump’s attempt to imply that the trilateral Makkah Joint Defence Agreement might be directed against Iran is difficult to accept. Iran itself has welcomed the pact, suggesting that it does not see the agreement as an anti-Iran measure. If Trump’s statement is an attempt to paint the pact thus, then that attempt should not work. The larger lesson is clear: regional countries increasingly understand that they cannot continue to outsource their security to a power whose overriding strategic commitment is the protection of Israel, even at the expense of its own allies. The Middle East needs greater regional cooperation and unity. The US and Israel may continue to destabilise the region, but their ability to dictate its future can be limited if regional countries develop a collective security architecture and become more self-reliant. If peace is genuinely the objective, this is the direction the region must take.