The Sanctions Test

The Middle East appears to be approaching its next breakpoint. After months of direct military confrontation, Washington is now promising what it calls the toughest sanctions in history against Iran.
Admittedly, economic pressure is less destructive than another round of US-Israeli military strikes. In that sense, the shift itself reflects the stalemate: Iran has not been physically cowed, and Washington increasingly appears to be looking for another means of forcing Tehran into submission. Yet sanctions could prove no less consequential for the international order.
The real question is not simply what restrictions Washington announces, but who follows them. The US has enormous financial power and has repeatedly used access to its markets and banking system to force individual states into compliance. But this campaign could become a test of how far that influence still extends.
China’s response will be particularly important. Beijing has already rejected unilateral sanctions and called for diplomacy. If it continues trading with Iran despite American pressure, the effectiveness of Washington’s campaign could be severely weakened. If other major economies follow, the consequences could extend far beyond Iran.
That is what makes the threatened sanctions a double-edged sword. If Washington succeeds in compelling broad compliance, it will demonstrate the continuing reach of American economic power. If significant states simply refuse, however, it could expose the limits of that power and mark an important rupture in US global stature. Sanctions work partly because the world agrees to enforce them.
At such a moment, diplomacy becomes even more important. Field Marshal Asim Munir’s presence in Tehran, alongside Pakistan’s continuing efforts to advance the Islamabad understanding, is therefore timely. Iran too has indicated that it sees space for ending the conflict from what it considers a position of strength.
Another confrontation, whether military or economic, risks pushing an already fractured region towards an entirely new crisis.