Most pointless war

The Political and Economic Cost of Trump’s Iran War

US President Donald Trump’s declaration that the war in Iran is “effectively over” has done little to dispel uncertainty about what Washington intends to do next. While playing down the prospect of escalating the military campaign after the Republican Party’s heavy midterm losses, Trump insisted that the US remained “locked and loaded” should circumstances change. His approval rating is close to the lowest point of his political career and public anger over rising prices continues to damage his standing. He has conceded that it is “largely true” that Iran and the fuel-price increases triggered by the conflict contributed to the Republicans’ defeat. Vice President JD Vance has also blamed the loss on the war. Yet this recognition of the political cost has not produced a credible commitment to end the fighting. Trump has previously declared the war over, while Iran has repeatedly questioned his claims about resolving the conflict. On Wednesday, Iran’s supreme leader warned that the Middle East war would widen if the US resumed its attacks.

Trump’s unreliability is at the heart of this pointless war. His original presidential campaign was built around opposition to foreign wars. That is why his decision, of all US presidents, to launch the US-Israel war on Iran in February alienated sections of his MAGA support base, which rightly accused him of placing Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s interests above those of the US. Even after a temporary ceasefire brokered by Pakistan and the resulting Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding, it was Trump who escalated the conflict despite no provocation from Iran. There may be several explanations for this escalation. Israeli influence over the president is an obvious concern, while the possibility of market manipulation through his statements also deserves scrutiny. One day Trump declares the war over; the next, reports emerge that the US is considering using the ‘mother of all bombs’ (MOAB) against Iran. Such erratic statements have contributed to market crashes and uncertainty. The consequences extend far beyond financial speculation. The conflict has put the world’s economies at stake, threatening higher inflation and disrupting oil and gas supplies.

Vance has sought to distance himself from the Iran war, apparently mindful of his ambition to become the Republican nominee in the next presidential election. But distancing himself is not enough. The Republican Party cannot afford to treat this as a problem that will disappear once the political damage has been contained. Its members must take a clear stand against the president and pressure him to bring the war to a definitive end. Trump is serving his last term and may be less concerned with the Republican Party’s future anyway. A conflict driven by contradictory declarations, shifting threats and uncertain objectives threatens global economic stability, energy supplies and ordinary citizens already struggling with rising prices. A president who campaigned as an opponent of war has instead placed the world’s economies at risk. Republicans must stop calculating how best to manage the political fallout and start exercising their responsibility to restrain their own president. It is time for Trump to sign an agreement ending this war once and for all, rather than declaring it over whenever it suits him. And for the Democrats, it is useful to remember that it was their president who had overseen the beginning of the Gaza genocide while doing nothing to help the Palestinians. If they’ve won on slogans, perhaps they need constant reminders that they will be expected to act on those too.