A Shift in U.S. Military Calculations: Iran’s Deterrence Strategy and Threat to Regional Infrastructure in the Persian Gulf

The director of the Iqbal Forum stated in an interview with the “Sono News” podcast that Iran’s explicit threat to target the region’s critical energy infrastructure has disrupted Washington’s military calculations. According to him, the heavy costs of war, rising insurance premiums for oil tankers, and surging energy prices have pushed the United States toward a controlled and indirect conflict. Meanwhile, regional countries are seeking de-escalation because of the extreme vulnerability of their oil facilities.

Summary of Mr. Baqeri Remarks

America’s Strategy of Pressure and Retreat

The United States under Trump employs a “compliance strategy”: while issuing severe military threats, it simultaneously keeps the door open to negotiations to extract concessions without entering a full-scale war. However, current conditions do not favor Washington. A prolonged war, dwindling stocks of advanced weapons, rising energy prices, domestic pressures, and the risk of the conflict expanding have substantially increased the costs for the United States.

Targeted Threats Against Regional Energy Infrastructure

Iran’s deterrence posture has changed America’s calculations. Iran has identified a specific list of critical infrastructure targets in the region—including the Abqaiq and Khurais oil facilities in Saudi Arabia, refineries in the UAE, Qatar’s gas complexes, Kuwait’s Burgan oil field, and Israel’s offshore gas fields—and has warned that it will strike these sites if its own infrastructure is attacked. Rebuilding these facilities could take years.

The Role of Persian Gulf States and Saudi Arabia’s Involvement

The involvement and mediation of Mohammed bin Salman or other regional leaders are not driven purely by diplomacy. Rather, they reflect an awareness of the extreme vulnerability of their energy infrastructure. Regional countries understand that relying on external powers for security will not prevent them from suffering damage.

Iran’s Hybrid-Warfare Tactics

Iran’s strategy is a “hybrid strategy” involving the simultaneous targeting of military assets, energy infrastructure, and maritime transport routes.

Iran does not intend to fight a conventional, evenly matched war against U.S. naval forces. Instead, it relies on drones, long-range missiles, electronic warfare, and pressure on energy supply routes.

The Importance of Maritime Insurance

Today, the main challenge facing global markets is not merely the base price of oil. It also includes the severalfold increase in war-risk insurance premiums for oil tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz, which places severe pressure on global supply chains.

Electronic and Cyber Warfare: The Silent Front

The most important and least visible front in these tensions is “asymmetric electronic warfare,” which focuses on disrupting missile and drone guidance systems, radars, and communications networks.