Summary of Analysis by Mohammad Hussain Baqeri, International Affairs Expert from Tehran, on Suno News HD Podcast

Why Did Iran Directly Attack Israel?

The End of Strategic Patience

For the first time in history, Iran responded directly with missile strikes following Israeli attacks on Iranian territory and on what it describes as a brotherly country, Lebanon.

A Fundamental Change in the Rules of Engagement

Iran is no longer prepared to tolerate attacks not only against its own territory but also against countries associated with the Axis of Resistance, including Iraq, Lebanon, and Yemen.

A Message to Trump

The strike was presented as both an act of loyalty toward Hezbollah and a message to Washington: unlike the United States, Iran follows through on its commitments and declarations.

What Is Behind Netanyahu’s Strategy?

A Fight for Political Survival

Due to significant military losses and growing domestic pressure within Israel, Netanyahu is portrayed as entering the next four months before elections in a politically weakened position.

Setting a War Trap for Trump

By intensifying attacks on Beirut and the Dahieh district, Netanyahu is allegedly seeking an electoral advantage while simultaneously drawing Iran deeper into the conflict and increasing pressure on Trump to become more directly involved.

Tel Aviv’s Future Challenges

According to this assessment, eliminating Hezbollah is impossible, as demonstrated by the experiences of 1982 and 2006.

Israel is expected to face a demographic challenge as well as a growing wave of anti-Zionist sentiment, not only across global public opinion but increasingly among Jewish communities in places such as New York.

🇺🇸 The United States and Donald Trump’s Strategy

The American Triangle

Washington’s power is described as resting on three pillars: economics, politics, and war.

The United States is said to require instability in the Middle East and the survival of Israel in order to sustain its defense industry and military-economic interests.

Trump’s Winning Card

At the same time, Trump is portrayed as seeking a ceasefire because of economic pressures.

He reportedly needs a political achievement, and a nuclear agreement with Iran could serve that purpose, allowing him to tell the world:

“I prevented Iran from acquiring a nuclear bomb.”

 Iran’s Conditions for an Agreement and the Economic Situation

Negotiations, but on Tehran’s Terms

Although Iran is interested in reaching an agreement due to economic pressures, it is not willing to accept a temporary arrangement.

The confrontation between Iran and Israel is viewed as an ideological and existential conflict rather than a dispute that can be permanently resolved through short-term compromises.

First Condition: Release of Frozen Assets

Tehran’s primary demand is the release of approximately $20 billion in frozen assets and the lifting of sanctions.

An Alternative Oil Formula

One possibility is that, instead of direct cash payments, the United States could provide Iran with long-term exemptions allowing oil exports for 10 to 15 years.

If Iran is able to sell its oil at full market value, the country’s economy could potentially return to pre-crisis conditions within three to seven years.

 Why Was the Funeral Ceremony of the Supreme Leader Postponed?

Preparing for a Historic Gathering

According to this analysis, Iran intends to organize an unprecedented ceremony attended by Muslims and non-Muslims from around the world, potentially setting a global record for participation.

Distrust Toward Israel

The temporary postponement is also attributed to concerns that Israel could exploit such a large public gathering for military or security purposes.

Iran is reportedly seeking first to contain Israel through political leverage, and there is speculation that the ceremony could eventually be scheduled for Ashura or Arbaeen.