Summary of Remarks by Muhammad Hussain Baqeri, Director of the Iqbal Forum in an Interview with Suno News

1. Who Started the War and Responsibility

Mr. Baqeri argues that some analysts have forgotten that Iran did not initiate this war. Despite widespread public distrust of the United States, Iran signed a 14-point memorandum of understanding with Donald Trump in an effort to give diplomacy a chance. He added that if a genuine opportunity arises, Iran would remain open to diplomacy in the future.

2. U.S. Breach of Commitments and the Oman Corridor

According to Baqeri, the United States has violated almost every provision of the agreement. Iran’s frozen assets were not released, and contrary to the agreement regarding Iranian-supervised passage of commercial vessels through the Strait of Hormuz, the U.S. established an alternative route known as the Oman Corridor.

He stated that the U.S. encouraged commercial ships to use the Oman route instead of the Strait of Hormuz and deployed naval escorts for them. In his view, this undermined Iran’s strategic leverage over the Strait of Hormuz.

3. Why Iran Ended Its Strategic Patience

Responding to criticism over why Iran did not exercise greater restraint during the funeral ceremonies of its leader, Baqeri said the issue was not merely about the economy or temporary stability but about preserving national sovereignty.

He argued that if Iran had remained silent regarding the Oman Corridor, it would have lost its strategic leverage—the Strait of Hormuz—which, according to him, had demonstrated its geopolitical importance during the 40-day conflict. He said Iran believed that failure to respond would have resulted in a strategic collapse of the country’s overall security system.

4. Possible Scenarios for the Iran–U.S. Conflict

Baqeri outlined four possible scenarios for the future of the crisis:

• War alongside negotiations: Continuation of the current situation, with limited military confrontation accompanied by diplomatic efforts, while the U.S. seeks to prevent Iran from gaining complete control over the Strait of Hormuz without escalating into full-scale war.
• Return to large-scale war (the more likely scenario): Given what he described as U.S. strikes on 170 locations in Iran over the previous two weeks, he believes the possibility of a full-scale war is very high.
• Naval blockade: A U.S. effort to completely cut off Iran’s imports and exports by sea, although he believes Iran has the capability to disrupt such a blockade.
• U.S. acceptance of Iran’s proposals: Baqeri considers this highly unlikely due to the influence of pro-Israel lobbying groups around President Trump.

5. Analysis of the Alleged 170 U.S. Strikes

Baqeri claimed that the reported strikes on 170 locations—including Bandar Abbas, Bushehr, Chabahar, and other areas—were not random but followed a clear operational pattern.

According to him, the attacks began along the coastline and gradually moved toward inland and southwestern regions. He argued that the objective extended beyond destroying missile systems, aiming instead to push back Iran’s defensive lines, disrupt logistical routes, and assess Iran’s speed of recovery and military response. In his view, these actions could be preparations for a broader war.

6. Military Responses and Casualties

Baqeri acknowledged that Iran’s defense system has suffered damage and that Iran does not possess advanced air defense capabilities comparable to those of the United States.

However, he said Iran’s strategy relies on missiles, drones, and fast attack boats to control the Strait of Hormuz and target U.S. interests in the region.

He also claimed that attacks had been carried out against U.S. command centers in Jordan, Patriot missile systems in Kuwait, Al Dhafra Air Base in the UAE, and that Fujairah Port had become largely inoperable.

According to him, Iran’s strategic logic is: “If we cannot use the Strait of Hormuz, we will not allow anyone else to use it either.”

7. The Role of Yemen (the Houthis) and Saudi Arabia

Baqeri argued that Yemen’s Houthis have effectively positioned themselves as part of the “Axis of Resistance” alongside Iran and are attempting to replicate the Strait of Hormuz strategy in the Bab al-Mandab Strait.

In his assessment, Saudi Arabia has been the largest economic beneficiary during the 40-day conflict because it has increased oil exports through its East–West pipeline system.

However, he warned that if the conflict escalates into full-scale war and the Houthis disrupt shipping in the Red Sea and Bab al-Mandab, Saudi Arabia’s economy would face severe consequences.