Summary of Remarks by Muhammad Hussain Baqeri, Director of the Iqbal forum , in an Interview with Federal Post Digital Media

1. U.S. and Trump Strategy Toward Iran

Washington’s policy can be summarized in three words: economics, politics, and war.

Trump failed in his political objective (regime change in Iran) and his economic objective (gaining control over Iran’s energy resources and preventing the emergence of its potential $28 trillion economy). His objectives have continuously shifted over time.

The United States was successful only in the military dimension, benefiting its defense industry and generating massive arms sales to Gulf countries.

2. Battlefield Situation and the Paper Ceasefire

Despite claims of a ceasefire on paper, reciprocal hostilities (attacks on Chabahar/Bandar Abbas versus missile responses targeting Kuwait and Bahrain) continue under a strategy of mutual retaliation.

This pattern is likely to continue until Trump secures a “winning card” that allows him to exit the crisis with political credibility.

3. Regional Diplomacy

Contrary to common perceptions, both Tehran and Washington still regard Pakistan as the principal mediator and the most important political channel in the crisis.

Qatar’s involvement has been primarily financial, limited to facilitating the release of $6 billion in frozen Iranian assets. Doha has avoided a political mediation role due to concerns about sensitivities among members of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC).

Recognizing Iran’s regional weight and the strategic importance of the Strait of Hormuz—which is now considered more powerful for Iran than a nuclear bomb—Oman has accepted a framework of shared management of the waterway. Oman and Türkiye have consequently become the primary destinations for Iranian businesses relocating from Dubai.

Due to insecurity in Balochistan, Pakistan lost the opportunity to attract an estimated $40 billion in redirected trade and investment flows.

4. Iran–Israel Confrontation: Demographic Crisis and Netanyahu’s Future

Unlike the Iran–U.S. dispute, the confrontation between Iran and Israel is viewed as an ideological and existential conflict that cannot be resolved through negotiations and will end only when one side is significantly weakened.

Israel is facing internal fragmentation and a demographic challenge. The rapid growth of the Arab population in the occupied territories is expected to undermine the concept of “Greater Israel” in future generations.

By prolonging the war, Netanyahu is attempting to influence public opinion ahead of elections expected within the next five months.

Trump may ultimately leave the conflict through a new nuclear agreement, presenting it as a political achievement while facilitating the return of Iranian assets. However, the proxy conflict between Iran and Israel is expected to continue until a two-state solution is imposed on Tel Aviv.

5. Lebanon’s Red Line and the Ground-Invasion Scenario

Iran’s firm warning that a ground assault on Beirut would trigger the launch of 250 missiles into Israel and the closure of the Bab al-Mandab Strait reportedly forced the Israeli military to temporarily step back.

Upcoming elections in Lebanon are considered critically important. The current alignment among the Lebanese Army, the government, and Hezbollah against Israel could deepen if Hezbollah performs strongly in the elections.

According to this assessment, if Israel attacks Shiite-populated areas of Beirut, Iran would directly bombard Israel.

6. Final Position and Warning to Pakistan

Pakistan has so far managed the diplomatic situation skillfully, but it should remain aware that Trump and Netanyahu are not reliable partners.

Within the next month, Islamabad is expected either to host the signing of a ceasefire agreement or, if the crisis continues, face a difficult choice between safeguarding U.S. interests and maintaining good-neighborly relations with Iran.