Torpedo Diplomacy: Will the Hormuz Deadlock Lead to a Major Explosion?

Muhammad Hussain Baqeri, Director of the Iqbal Forum , stated in a widely followed podcast on Suno News that the region is currently in a state of “economic cold war.” He pointed to Iran’s military readiness in the Strait of Hormuz and the ineffectiveness of nuclear negotiations at this stage, warning that the continuation of the U.S. naval blockade could push Iran toward a strong military response in the coming days. At the same time, he described Pakistan’s role as a vital land corridor and a trusted mediator.

Shift in negotiation strategy: From nuclear issues to regional security

Iran, in its new proposals, has temporarily removed nuclear issues and uranium enrichment from priority. Tehran’s current strategy is to first resolve the naval blockade and the economic damages caused by the United States. Iran is no longer negotiating from a position of weakness but is using control over the Strait of Hormuz as its main leverage.

Naval blockade is a continuation of war

From Iran’s perspective, the absence of gunfire does not mean peace. Economic blockade and restrictions on maritime traffic are considered a continuation of war. If this diplomatic deadlock is not resolved in the coming days, Iran may use its military capabilities—including torpedoes, drones, and fast attack boats—to reopen its trade routes. In essence, Iran is prepared to initiate military action to break the blockade.

Economic resilience and livelihood challenges

The naval blockade has had direct impacts on Iran’s domestic market, causing a surge in currency prices and inflation. However, Iran continues to export oil through unofficial fleets to destinations such as China in the medium term. If storage facilities become full and exports halt, Iran may be forced into a stronger response.

Pakistan: Economic lifeline and trusted mediator

In this situation, Pakistan’s role is highly significant. Opening land transit routes and utilizing ports such as Karachi and Gwadar provide Iran with a crucial opportunity to bypass the naval blockade. Iran considers Pakistan a trusted mediator and a strategic partner in this crisis.

Future outlook: Agreement or conflict?

Baqeri believes the world will soon witness one of two outcomes: either a rapid agreement to lift the naval blockade, or the region entering a new phase of direct military confrontation. He emphasized that Iran will ultimately prevail in this prolonged conflict, as there is no global alternative to the energy routes passing through the Strait of Hormuz.