The “Patience and Slap” Strategy; Revisiting Iran’s Defense Doctrine in the Ramadan War

Statements by Mohammad Hossein Bagheri, head of the Iqbal Forum, in an interview with Nasim Zahra, host of a political program on Channel 24 Pakistan:

1. Military Layer: Erosion of Air Superiority and Unveiling of “Sejjil”

Iran has managed to disrupt the enemy’s aerial refueling chain by making the airspace of intermediary countries (such as Iraq) unsafe. This action has effectively reduced the United States’ absolute air superiority to a “long-range missile war.”

Operational Message: The unveiling of the Mach 13 Sejjil missile is not merely a display of power; it is a message to air defense systems (David’s Sling and Arrow) that their reaction time has been reduced to under 7 minutes. This indicates that Iran has shifted from a phase of “passive defense” to “preemptive retaliation.”

2. Geopolitical Layer: Confronting the “Greater Israel” Project

Bagheri emphasizes that the current battle is not just a conflict, but a war to ensure strategic survival.

Defensive Barrier: By activating multiple fronts (from Bab al-Mandeb to the Strait of Hormuz), Iran has significantly increased the cost of realizing the “Greater Israel” vision for Israel.

Shift in Balance: Trump’s retreat from unilaterally reopening the Strait of Hormuz and his request for assistance from Britain and other allies indicate a decline in U.S. maritime dominance in the region.

3. Deterrence Layer: The Doctrine of “Hidden Cards”

Iran’s strategy has shifted from “strategic patience” to a “proportionate and surprising response.”

Iran possesses options such as the capture of Bahrain, control over the Strait of Hormuz and Bab al-Mandeb, attacks on energy infrastructure in Persian Gulf countries, and ultimately nuclear capability.

4. Diplomatic Layer: Conditions for Exiting the Crisis

Iran’s conditions for a ceasefire (complete withdrawal of U.S. forces and payment of compensation) go beyond conventional wartime demands.

Final Objective: Iran seeks the “geopolitical cleansing” of the region from foreign presence. These demands indicate that Tehran considers itself in a strong position and believes that economic pressure from high oil prices and disruption in global supply chains will eventually force Washington to accept these terms.

Conclusion:

Iran views the Ramadan war as an opportunity to finalize its strategy of “expelling the United States from the region” and permanently ending Israeli expansionism. This conflict is not only military but also a battle of wills, where the “patience of a Persian carpet weaver” stands against “Trump’s fast-paced transactional approach.”