Decoding the Complex Developments Between Iran, the United States, and Israel in the Region

Why did Iran not go to Geneva? What is behind the Supreme Leader’s letter? How beneficial was the oil agreement for Tehran?

Mohammad Hossein Bagheri, Director of iqbalforum, in an interview with the widely watched Geo News network:

1. The Iran–U.S. Agreement from an Expert Perspective:

Global Perspective: For the first time in history, the United States has entered into an agreement with an opposing party in circumstances where clear signs of Washington’s failure are visible.

Iranian Public Perspective: This memorandum of understanding is viewed as a key diplomatic step toward consolidating previous field achievements.

The Supreme Leader’s Letter: Although Iran’s Supreme Leader did not fundamentally or ideologically agree with the deal, he approved it due to assurances provided by the President and the Supreme National Security Council regarding the protection of national rights and the U.S. commitment to implementing 10 out of the 14 provisions of the agreement. Nevertheless, public opinion continues to view the matter with skepticism.

2. Cancellation of the Geneva Visit and Iran’s Firm Conditions:

The Iranian delegation’s participation in Geneva has been canceled, and Tehran has placed two non-negotiable conditions on the table:

A Complete Halt to Attacks: Israeli operations in Lebanon, particularly in the south, must stop entirely.

Release of Assets: Twenty-four billion dollars of Iran’s frozen assets must be released and transferred before the start of any negotiations.

Situation on the Ground: The killing of 50 people in recent Israeli attacks in Lebanon indicates that Iran’s conditions have not been met, and the Supreme Leader’s warning against advancing negotiations remains entirely serious.

3. Iran’s Ultimatum Regarding a Direct Strike on Israel:

Iran has made its position clear from the outset: if the United States fails to restrain Israeli attacks within the next 24 to 48 hours, the likelihood of a direct Iranian strike against Israel will be very high. According to this view, Israel—not Iran—is currently violating the agreements.

4. Tehran’s Economic Gains During the 60-Day Period:

According to statistics published by the website “Kpler,” Iran exported 19 million barrels of oil to China over the past three days alone, generating approximately $1.5 billion in revenue. This indicates that the current 60-day period has also represented a major economic gain for Iran.

5. An Unprecedented Rift Between the United States and Israel:

Relations between Washington and Tel Aviv have experienced a serious fracture. Criticism of the Netanyahu government by J. D. Vance, and reciprocal criticism of Donald Trump by pro-Israel circles, have intensified.

According to this assessment, Benjamin Netanyahu, facing declining poll numbers, sees his political survival in the failure of negotiations and the continuation of war. He is therefore portrayed as a disruptive actor who may obstruct a final agreement, a permanent ceasefire, and a proposed $300 billion investment package.