Failure of the Islamabad negotiations; why no agreement was reached?

Mohammad Hossein Bagheri, Head of the Iqbal Forum , analyzes the behind-the-scenes developments of the recent negotiations between Iranian and U.S. delegations in Pakistan. Despite diplomatic efforts by the host, the talks did not reach a final agreement.

 Key points of this analysis:

• Main cause of the deadlock: U.S. insistence on a complete halt to uranium enrichment in Iran and the removal of fuel reserves from the country, versus the Iranian delegation’s firm stance on its nuclear rights.
• Secondary objectives of Washington: Efforts to end Iran’s control over the Strait of Hormuz and reopen this strategic waterway, which is currently under Iranian control.
• Miscalculation in timing: The analyst believes that if Iran had continued resistance and kept the Strait of Hormuz closed for another 20 days, given the economic pressure on the UAE, Kuwait, and Bahrain, along with a 300% increase in global transportation costs, it would have entered negotiations with significantly stronger leverage.
• Situation of Israel and its allies: If the 15-day ceasefire collapses completely, there is a risk of a large-scale war in which regional Arab countries may provide logistical and financial support to the United States.
• Iran’s defensive readiness: Registration of more than 20 million volunteers for national defense and full preparedness of the armed forces to respond to any aggression.
• Role of Saudi Arabia: Riyadh’s attempt to use the East–West pipeline as an alternative to the Strait of Hormuz for oil exports during critical periods.