Mohammad Hossein Baqeri, a political analyst and head of the Iqbal Forum based in Tehran, analyzed the latest developments related to the war imposed on Iran by the United States and the Zionist regime in an interview with Hum News Pakistan.

1. Analysis of Trump’s 5-day ceasefire announcement
Baqeri stated that Trump’s 48-hour deadline failed, and the announcement of a 5-day pause is an admission of that failure. He argued that within the short period between Trump’s threats and the move toward negotiations, six key factors forced the United States to step back:

• War costs: Daily expenses have reached billions of dollars, facing resistance from the U.S. Congress.
• U.S. economy: Hopes for lowering interest rates have disappeared, and there is a risk of severe inflation.
• Allies’ retreat: Despite 22 countries declaring readiness, none provided actual military support.
• Supply chain disruption: Major companies such as TSMC warned of chip shortages affecting global technology.
• Energy crisis: The International Energy Agency has acknowledged the severity of the crisis and reduced global supply.
• Election pressure: High fuel prices and public dissatisfaction have increased pressure on Trump.

2. Denial of direct negotiations
Baqeri clearly stated that, based on follow-ups with offices of senior officials, no direct negotiations have taken place between Iran and the United States. He described Trump’s claims as false narratives aimed at influencing global markets.

3. Iran’s conditions for de-escalation
He emphasized that Iran’s conditions are clear, and no negotiations will occur unless they are met:

• Removal of U.S. military bases from neighboring countries.
• Compensation for all damages inflicted on Iran.
• Written and credible guarantees that no further attacks will occur.

4. Military strategy and deterrence capability

• Shift to offense: Iran has moved beyond defense and will retaliate immediately against any attack.
• Missile reserves: Iran possesses sufficient missile stockpiles for years of war and is currently using only a fraction of its capacity.
• Accuracy: Missile hit rates have increased from 12% to over 60%, indicating pressure on enemy defense systems.

5. Warning in case of ground invasion
Baqeri warned that if the United States launches a ground attack on strategic locations such as Kharg Island, Iran will implement a dangerous strategy, including reciprocal occupation, potentially targeting U.S. facilities in Kuwait or Bahrain.

6. View on relations with Pakistan
He stated that in the new foreign policy, Pakistan holds a special position as a brotherly and friendly country, and Iran views this neighbor with deep strategic and emotional importance.

In summary:
According to Baqeri, Iran is currently in a superior position, while Trump is seeking a way to exit the crisis with a symbolic victory, but Iran will not retreat until its full rights are secured.