The “No War, No Peace” Situation Between Iran and the United States

Conversation of Hossein Bagheri, head of the Iqbal Think Tank, with Samina Pasha about the outcome of Iran–US tensions

Hossein Bagheri believes in this interview that the current situation is a highly dangerous state of uncertainty, and the likelihood of renewed conflict in the coming weeks is very high.

1. Deadlock in indirect negotiations:

Talks are currently being conducted indirectly with Pakistan acting as a mediator.
The three main points of disagreement are:

👉 Strait of Hormuz: The United States wants a return to pre-February 2026 conditions, while Iran considers it a vital leverage tool and is unwilling to retreat.

👉 Shift in priorities: Unlike the past when the nuclear issue was the top priority, current priorities are:

1. The status of the Strait of Hormuz
2. Lifting sanctions
3. Uranium enrichment

👉 Enrichment: Trump demands a complete halt for 20 years, while Iran insists it is necessary for medical and energy purposes.

2. Impact of the US naval blockade:

Bagheri confirms that the US naval blockade has put pressure on Iran’s economy, increasing the price of the dollar and goods domestically.

He warns that this “temporary ceasefire” is not beneficial for Iran, as economic pressure continues without military conflict. If the blockade continues for another week, Iranian forces may directly target US naval vessels to break it.

3. Role of Pakistan:

Pakistan has acted strategically by opening six transit routes for Iran to replace routes through the UAE.

Despite some skepticism within parts of Iranian society about Pakistan’s intentions, Iran’s leadership and government still trust Pakistan’s mediation.

4. Future outlook (next 1–3 weeks):

Bagheri believes Trump is highly self-centered and unwilling to accept humiliation through retreat, even at the cost of economic pressure on his own population (such as rising fuel prices in the US).

Final assessment: Bagheri is pessimistic about reaching an agreement and says that within the next one to three weeks, either a full deal will be reached or the war will resume with greater intensity, with the latter being more likely.

Final note: Most Iranians believe that if sanctions are not lifted, continuing the ceasefire is meaningless and the conflict should continue to reach a final resolution.