The fall of Syria was destined to happen as per the scriptures of divinity. Revered volumes of Shia theology such as Kitab Al-Ghaybah and Bihar-Ul-Anwar quote the sixth revered holy Imam of Shi’ism, Imam Jaffer al-Sadiq, as saying that the return of Umayyads to Damascus will be a prelude to Armageddon. That apparently has been realised with the abrupt end of the Alawite dynasty that reigned supreme for five decades in self-service, and more as a prodigy of Iran. However, President Bashar al-Assad’s exit was never expected to happen in such an unceremonious, rather disgusting, manner.
Assad has reportedly fled to Russia, the regime’s once geo-strategic patron, and is set to extinguish in oblivion in weeks and months. But Syrians are fraught with serious consequences as more bloodshed and revulsion is set to unfold in the region.
The intruders in the restive Arab state, who were once-labeled as terrorists, are now being eulogised as saviours and history is being read in introspection with glory for some and death-knell for others.
As far as Syria is concerned, one tyranny has given way to another. The lightning advance of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) group, in aid of other fugitive outfits including ISIS, al-Qaeda and Daesh, is a déjà vu for many on the pattern of Taliban 2.0 triumph over Kabul in August 2021. The Americans and the West never expected it to be so quick, but it seems forces of inertia with the covert support of some major Arab players had swung a surprise. But it remains to be seen whether these gun-trotting factions will abide by their benefactor’s agenda or go berserk as had been the case in Iraq after the fall of Saddam Hussein.
Riyadh, Doha, Abu Dhabi, Ankara and Amman will have to watch out these dark horses, and keep fingers crossed. The militias now swirling across the Levant can sooner than later become a pain in the neck. Will it tip the pendulum towards Arab Spring-2.0 is anybody’s guess.
The major loser is, of course, Iran. Tehran stands battered in the last few weeks, and is almost decimated in terms of power politics. It has lost its clout in Lebanon, Hezbollah is bleeding, Hamas is obliterated, and Houthis are desolated. The Shia brigades in Syria are running helter-skelter and those inside are in a fix. Supply lines for all these non-state actors from Iran are almost choked, and they face an existential threat.
Israel for all practical purposes is on a rampage, and no eyebrows were raised in a jaundiced media as Tel Aviv rolled in its tanks deep inside Syria, hours after Assad decamped his fiefdom.
Golan Heights, under Israeli occupation since 1967, will stay put with the Zionist state as there is no resistance now from anywhere. With recent encroachments of the Jewish state becoming a fait accompli in Lebanon and uninterrupted barbarism in Gaza becoming a new-normal, Israel has become invincible and is close to the Torah’s belief of erecting a Greater Israel in the Middle East.
All tall claims of Ayatollahs of Iran to raise a resistance force in the name of Al-Quds, and annihilate the state of Israel, have fallen flat. A few hundred pseudo-sorties flown over the Iron Dome by Tehran, in retaliation to the deadly attacks inside the Islamic Republic, were counter-productive. It made a laughing stock of Iranian might and exposed its political hollowness. The orthodox dispensation needs to do some soul-searching and put an end to cursing from the pulpit. Enough of playing to the gallery since 1979.
Syria today is a no-man’s land open for meddling by great powers. Moscow’s timely setback will soon be plastered if Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin agree on a thaw in one of the most volatile regions of the world. They have reasons for a quid pro quo on Ukraine and Israel. But the indispensable lesson learnt from Syria, and the likes, is that tyranny and iron-fist rules are time-barred, and the blood and sweat of commoners is less than a worth of fodder.
