The Simmering Strategic Quagmire (Part 2)

Pakistan has a unique, multidimensional presence in the ME. It is a member of the Board of Peace in Gaza, is mediating between the US and Iran in the Gulf war, is assisting Iran wherever it can, and is simultaneously defending KSA from hostile attacks from the Red Sea–Gulf of Aden–Bab el Mandab complex, Yemen, and from across the Persian Gulf. It is also being viewed as a potential net stabiliser and net security provider in the region as more Gulf Arab states approach it for defence relationships. If manifested, it is bound to have very serious strategic ramifications. It will seriously test Pakistan’s diplomatic dexterity, resolve, resources, and perseverance in pursuit of its multifarious commitments. Pakistan therefore must strike a critical balance in its approach to the divergent, often conflicting imperatives of the ME’s erratic, unpredictable, unforgiving geopolitics!
Pakistan needs deep analytical thinking, incisive policy formulation, critical decision-making, and well-crafted diplomacy to cross such a Rubicon, if at all. Primarily, it must determine and secure its vital national interests in this volatile geopolitical-geostrategic imbroglio. It must therefore articulate an unambiguous strategic direction, a compatible, well-defined, achievable policy end state, and practical ways to attain its strategic objectives/end state. One, in pursuance of the SMDA, it could deploy a well-equipped, balanced force in the ME to create a centre of power that eventually expands and transforms into a veritable centre of gravity of the region. Two, it could also act as a stabiliser and a deterrent against internal uprisings, turmoil, unrest, as well as against existential threats from hostile neighbours with expansionist designs and/or their distant allies. Three, it could help deter air and maritime threats from across the Persian Gulf, Yemen, and the Red Sea–Gulf of Aden–Bab el Mandab complex. Four, it could restrict itself to enhancing the Gulf Arab states’ military capacities and capabilities through military training, technological and technical support, joint exercises, etc. only. Five, the SMDA could be given a regional dimension by including all the GCC countries and Iran, Türkiye, Egypt, Jordan, etc. Six, it could implement all the foregoing options, albeit sequentially in time and space. Seven, Pakistan must have a viable exit strategy at all times; one which allows it to extricate itself honourably, regardless of the attainment of its policy end state or otherwise. Furthermore, the most direct means to achieving its desired policy end state could see Pakistan actually opting and moving to become the veritable net stabiliser and net security provider of the region, individually or through an enlarged SMDA, which, of necessity, must be supported by China and Russia. However, this will raise very serious implications at the geopolitical and geostrategic levels.
Crucially, Pakistan needs to be extremely wary of the critical strategic triangle formed by the divergent national interests of KSA, Iran, and Pakistan. In its mediatory role in the ME, Pakistan must endeavour to achieve the following: one, that the Gulf Arab states and Iran do not come into a prolonged, direct conflict; two, that a No-War Pact is agreed to first between KSA and Iran and then expanded to include all GCC countries to obviate internal friction and malign external intrusions and influences; three, restrict itself to the intimate defence and security of KSA while remaining within its territorial borders/limits; four, give the SMDA a genuine regional dimension by ensuring that Iran and other states join it and thus deter all existential and divisive threats to the region.
Pakistan’s expected/intended ingress might become contentious, provocative, and engender (un)avoidable friction and aggravation in the geopolitics of the ME. One, Pakistan might be venturing into a potential battleground where the national interests of the US and China may one day clash quite consequentially. Two, the US has maintained a particular status quo that overwhelms the ME through its overbearing and domineering military presence and through Israel’s arrogant, aggressive, expansionist, hostile hegemony. It will be averse to any fundamental changes to it. Three, Pakistan’s emergence as an acceptable net stabiliser and net security provider in the ME might be viewed as an unnecessary encroachment upon the US’s existing sphere of influence. Four, it might be viewed as facilitating the expansion of China’s BRI onto the Arabian Peninsula on its way to Africa, Europe, and beyond. Furthermore, all major powers like the US, China, the EU, Russia, Japan, South Korea, India, etc. have vital national interests in maintaining an unimpeded supply of oil, gas, fertilisers, petrochemicals, helium, etc. from the ME. However, it is only the US that maintains a preponderant military presence in the region, in the shape of USCENTCOM. It has military bases in the UAE, KSA, Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait, Iraq, and Oman, while Israel is a committed, dependent strategic ally. Its strategic reach therefore covers all extremes of the ME-GMER complex. USCENTCOM forces are already pre-positioned in their respective Areas of Responsibility (AOR) and Areas of Operations (AOO). Any intrusions into the ME by any power, regional or global, will thus invariably threaten US interests, impinge upon its sphere of influence, intrude into USCENTCOM’s AOR and AOO, and possibly hamper its strategic reach. Will that be acceptable/tolerable for the US?
Pakistan may harbour pretensions of becoming the net stabiliser and net security provider in the ME; such ambitions are, however, fraught with serious ramifications. The fronts, the frontages, the tasks, the roles, the demands, the expectations, the sensitivities, the clash of interests, etc. are all multiplying. Therefore, it becomes imperative that Pakistan have absolute clarity on the strategic direction, the desired end state, and the ways and means (exit strategy included) to secure its vital national interests. It must secure/position itself well before plunging headlong into the voracious, simmering strategic quagmire that the ME has degenerated into!