Unsettled Verdict

Israel has voted, but the ballot box seems to have left its political class with another headache. Even as Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud emerged as the largest party in Tuesday’s general election, his right-wing allies fell short of the 61 seats needed to govern. With most votes counted on Wednesday, his bloc was projected to secure 53 seats, against 48 for the principal opposition parties and 19 for Arab-led parties. Turnout reached 77.7 per cent, the highest in more than two decades. From the looks of it, Israelis came out in force, although the result has left both camps scrambling for a way forward.

It goes without saying that, as for Netanyahu, the result is a poor return on his campaign built around military triumphs and promises of security. The October 7, 2023, attacks occurred on his watch, exposing failures that his government has yet to fully account for. Three years and several wars later, he continues to portray himself as Israel’s indispensable protector. The voters, however, appear divided over whether to entrust him with another term.

Then there is Gaza. More than 74,000 Palestinians have been killed, according to the territory’s health authorities, while entire neighbourhoods have been wiped off the map. Years of bombardment have left families displaced, hospitals devastated and an entire generation growing up amid ruins. Netanyahu also faces an International Criminal Court arrest warrant over alleged war crimes and crimes against humanity, allegations he rejects. At home, he remains on trial for bribery, fraud and breach of trust.

His handling of Iran has brought another set of troubles. On the eve of voting, Netanyahu invoked US President Donald Trump’s endorsement and raised the prospect of further military action against Tehran. Fear of Iran has long been a dependable political card in Israel. Yet talk of another war makes grim reading when the Middle East is already paying dearly for successive confrontations.

The backlash abroad is harder to brush aside. A Pew Research Centre survey in March found that 60 per cent of Americans viewed Israel unfavourably, while 59 per cent had little or no confidence in Netanyahu’s handling of world affairs. Negative views of Israel have similarly reached 69 per cent in Britain and 73 per cent in Germany. These are striking figures for a country accustomed to strong Western support.

There is, however, little reason to expect a change of government to set everything right. Most major Jewish-led opposition parties also oppose Palestinian statehood, while Israel’s military campaigns in Gaza and Iran have enjoyed considerable domestic support.

Netanyahu may yet cobble together another coalition, or his opponents may find a way to keep him out. Either way, the next government will inherit Gaza’s devastation, the threat of renewed fighting with Iran and a growing loss of goodwill in the West